gimme a piece of cake!

In my Food Tech days back in my HS in OBMC, we always prepare a variety of foods depending on the lesson given. Sometimes we bake pastries, cook international cuisine and prepare jams and jellies. Part of it is the ever important food evaluation. We take a taste of what we have prepared analyze it whether it is 'good' or 'bad.' The teachers need not to eat the whole item in order to evaluate it. A piece of cake will determine whether the cake is 'good' or 'not so good.'

Just like our food evaluation in our Food Tech class, a sampling of 1,200 respondents can represent the entire population of the country. If it weren't for behavioralism, politics can never be analyzed in a scientific way and study the political behavior of the society. Based on empirical data gathered by political scientist, we can get a picture of the society and generalize a theory or explanation. Behavioralism is defined as 'a post-World War II movement to make the study of politics scientific.' It follows that 'it emphasized quantification, computer analysis of data, a focus on individual political actors.. and the need for explanatory empirical theory.' Behavioralists use statistics in its analysis of political data. With statistics, we can get an accurate explanation on such social behavior among individuals and get patterns from it.

In the Philippines, there are two institutions that promote behavioralism in the study of politics and they are the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia. Both institutions use statistics in generalizing political, economic and social behavior in the Philippines. They perform a random sample of 1,200 respondents, 18 years and above and they get their respondents in the four geographical areas: NCR, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Sex and class stratification are included in the criteria. Random sampling is also called representative, or proportionate sampling, and with it we could get a proportionately represented sample of the population. The 1,200 sample size is good enough for a nationwide survey and allows a 95 percent confidence level with a plus/minus 3 percent marginal error. The bigger the sample size, the smaller the marginal error. Having a larger sample size other than 1,200 gives a more accurate estimation of the public sentiment, but it would be much more costly and more tedious work. An interviewer will ask the respondent certain questions and he/she would give a simple answer, commonly 'yes' or 'no.' In the last May 2004 elections, I was a part of the ABS-CBN/SWS Exit Poll survey. An interviewer from the SWS went in our house and on that day I just came home from voting. The lady gave me a set of questions to answer regarding on who did I vote for and the reason for voting and other questions. After the survey, the lady gave me a piece of paper stating that I was interviewed by the SWS.

In conclusion, the 1,200 respondents can represent the 80 million Filipinos in the country. The 1,200 respondents are randomly selected in the four geographical areas, that is 300 respondents each area, and sex and class stratification are included. Every one has the opportunity to be selected, whether you are a male or a female, and belong to either Class A, B, C, D or E. The sample size of 1,200 is large enough to have an accurate pulse of the public's sentiments, given a 95 percent confidence level and a +3 and -3 marginal error. With the 1,200 respondents the statisticians can able to get the entire population's sentiment, or the statistical inference.


Sources:
1. Go, Miriam Grace A. "Survey agencies on center stage." Newsbreak. 12 Apr. 2004. 8 Oct. 2005 <http://www.inq7.net/nwsbrk/2004/apr/12/nbk_4-1.htm.>
2. "Behavioralism." Glossary, Political Science and Public Administration at The University of Toledo. 8 Oct. 2005 <www.politicalscience.utoledo.edu/faculty/lindeen/glos3260.htm.>
3. Virola, Romulo A. "On Election Polls: Part III." NSCB - Statistically Speaking... On Election Polls: Part III by Dr. Romulo A. Virola. 4 May 2004. National Statistical Coordination Board. 8 Oct. 2005 <http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/050604_rav_polls.asp.>

is politics considered science? YES!

Politics is part of social science and it deals with the political behavior of individuals. Mixing science and politics can enable us to understand very well set of behaviors in a certain social phenomena, similar to other people. This question has been asked for years by social 'scientists' on whether or not politics be considered a science. But we must ask ourselves--what is science?

Science is defined as 'the observationn, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena' (from the American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language-Fourth Ed.). If that is the case, we include science in politics in observing, identifying, describing political phenomena and provide theories and laws about it.

Science has been a part of political science since time immemorial. Political 'scientists' use the scientific method in order to explain certain political behavior in individuals. However, despite the accuracy in giving us an explanation of political behavior in individuals, we should look into consideration that an individual's behavior change in time. Unlike in natural science, the variables are constant, the human behavior varies across time and cultures. In one session of POLIANA, we watched the pilot episode of the series, Numb3rs, in which mathematics is used in solving crimes in the United States. The mathematician has developed an equation that helped the law enforcers locate the residence of the serial rapist, given the evidences and locations of rape in the city. However, they weren't able to catch the offender because they didn't took in account the place the serial rapist works; they only considered his home and that he changed residences.

With the above example, it shows that despite the accuracy of mathematics in solving the crime, the authorities were not able to arrest the person on time because the serial rapist changed residences. Just like in political behavior, an individual's perspective or view about politics change. Certain factors may change one's stand. In our present political situation, the political groups that once favored GMA during the EDSA II have now changed sides and are now opposing the present administration. Science still plays a major role in political science because just like natural science, we collect empirical data, draw hypothesis in a certain political behavior, and analyze the information collected to draw up theories and explanations. But, these theories, for me, serves as a guideline and not as absolute truths that would stand for time. Even though human behavior change in time, science can still play a major role in politics. To keep up with the changes in society, new theories and explanations will be generated to explain man's political behavior.

So, if you will ask me whether politics can be considered a science, I say YES! Political science is considered a science where the scientific method is used to study political systems and behavior among individuals.